The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has revised its productivity growth assumptions after years of holding out against such adjustments.
Notably, this change has not led to increased inflation forecasts nor the anticipation of stricter monetary policies.
The RBA's new approach suggests that lower productivity growth will dampen both supply and demand, primarily due to a decrease in income growth.
The government recently organised a productivity roundtable to tackle declining productivity growth and living standards. A dominant theme was the apparent intergenerational inequity perpetuated by the current tax system, which heavily taxes the working-age population while comparatively sparing affluent retirees.
However, despite the discussions, the Australian Labor Party has committed to tax reform only after the upcoming election in 2028. There's a concern that the government might leverage sentiments from the roundtable to justify increasing taxes on the wealthy for funding expansive spending, rather than reducing corporate and income taxes to promote work and investment, and in turn, enhance productivity.
Productivity has been a crucial influence on the AUD/USD exchange rate, along with the terms of trade, for the last 25 years. The surge in productivity during the mining investment boom was pivotal in pushing the AUD/USD above parity. However, the subsequent decline in productivity has significantly strained the exchange rate.
The current sluggish productivity growth in Australia is expected to limit AUD/USD gains, reaching only 0.68 by the end of 2025 and possibly hitting 0.70 by the second half of 2026. These predictions hinge partly on the risk that the RBA’s revised view on the inflation-productivity relationship might be overly optimistic, potentially impacting its rate cuts.
As Australia grapples with impending changes in its economic landscape, the RBA's decision to adjust productivity assumptions aligns with broader concerns about the nation's economic trajectory. The focus on tax reform and productivity improvements is crucial for sustaining economic growth, stabilising currency fluctuations, and enhancing overall financial well-being.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has introduced a new, consolidated legislative instrument that relates to financial advice. This update follows through on ASIC's May announcement regarding the remake of three existing advice-related instruments. - read more
Australia’s leading financial institution, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, has openly criticised the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for its calculations related to a proposed reduction in debit and credit card transaction fees. The RBA suggested that the reform would save Australian businesses $1.2 billion annually and benefit the majority of companies, a claim that the Commonwealth Bank strongly disputes. - read more
Amid a period of robust consumer spending, Australia's mortgage holders may face limited future interest-rate cuts. The Commonwealth Bank has observed Australians increasing their spending over the last six months, spurred by rising incomes, a robust job market, and previously lowered interest rates. - read more
Applying for an online loan can be a convenient way to manage your finances from the comfort of your own home. With technology's advancement, borrowing money has shifted from traditional brick-and-mortar institutions to digital platforms, making the process quicker and more accessible. However, navigating through this online landscape requires an understanding of how it operates. - read more
Managing debt is a crucial aspect of financial health, especially for millennials in Australia. With student loans, credit cards, and personal loans, it's easy to feel overwhelmed by the debt landscape. However, understanding your options and making informed decisions can set you on the path to financial freedom. - read more
Applying for a loan online streamlines the traditional borrowing process, offering a convenient and fast route to financial assistance. With the advent of technology, borrowers can now complete the entire loan application process from the comfort of their own homes. This digital evolution brings with it a series of steps that, when executed correctly, can result in swift loan approvals. - read more
